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Baseball betting strategy – Score a homerun on bookmakers

Baseball is one of the most popular American sports and one that has plenty of fans beyond US borders.

In order to be successful when placing a bet at online bookmakers, you should consider using a baseball betting strategy.

In this guide we teach you how to win at sports betting if baseball is your game of choice and highlight the best run line, money line and point spreads tips for baseball bettors.

These are easy baseball betting strategies that can help with your wagers and increase your profit margin.

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How does a beginner bet on baseball?

If you are an absolute beginner placing the first bets online, there are a couple of things you need to understand first. Even the best baseball betting strategies are built on these concepts and they apply to both regular season and playoff matches. You can use them at the best sports betting exchanges and take advantage of competitive odds. In conjunction with proper bankroll management, a baseball online betting strategy can make a difference between a marginal losing and a winning punter.

Betting on the favorites – this is the preferred betting MLB strategy because it has low variance and will deliver frequent winnings. The downside is that the odds are lower, so the profits will be less impressive. Once you get the betting odds explained, Moneyline wagers are less exciting.

Betting on underdogs – baseball is a game where underdogs can frequently cause upsets, but wagering exclusively on them is bad betting advice. The best baseball betting tips strategy will recommend mixing up bets on favorites and underdogs, potentially with handicaps.

Over/under betting – you can find this market at all the best baseball betting sites for final results and five innings. The advantage of over under betting is that you can win regardless of what team emerges victorious if you can predict the total number of runs scored.

Run line betting – you will be using handicaps for run line betting in baseball to back one team or the other to cover the spread. This is one of the best strategies for betting baseball underdogs not to lose by a wide margin, or favorites to secure a dominant victory.

Prop line betting – this is a more creative type of sports betting system that focuses on specific events. They usually have no impact on the outcome of the game and are meant to spice things up. These are suitable for betting for fun vs betting for profit and should be used with care.

Essential baseball betting tips

New players hoping to find baseball betting strategy tips have arrived at the right place. There are plenty of things to know about this beautiful sport, but luckily not that many things to learn to be successful. It all begins with having proper bankroll management because you need to manage your resources well to stand a chance. There are other things to consider and these are the 8 most important tips that can be found at the core of the best sports betting strategies for baseball enthusiasts.

Avoid big favorites ♥️ 

If the odds shrink below 1.30 you shouldn’t even consider betting on the team. There are simply too many upsets in this sport to justify such a baseball-betting Moneyline strategy. Instead, you should consider using handicaps to increase the quality of the odds.

Use -2.5 handicaps 🎖

If money line betting is not justified on big favorites, you should consider using the run line wagering. If you trust the better team to cover the -1.5 handicap, the odds will only increase slightly. If there is an obvious mismatch, go for the -2.5 handicaps for better odds.

Place small bets on underdogs 💱

A weak team that is in good form should be considered for a small bet. Find a guide for betting on underdogs and have at least one selection on the weaker team on any baseball betting day. In the long run, you will make a profit this way.

Bet against the public 🤲🏼

This is one of the straight betting tips to boost your chances of winning. Bookmakers will always adjust the odds based on how punters wager, so you want to go against the crowd. Don’t follow the trend if you want to make a profit.

Pay attention to line movements 🥎

If you want to learn how to bet on baseball strategy, you need to start by watching the odds move. The reverse live movement suggests that the balance has changed, with new injuries, suspensions, or simply an overwhelming crowd sentiment.

Factor in the playoff race 🚦

Sometimes the better teams will rest key players because they have already secured their objectives. If a club is qualified for the playoffs, while the opponent is desperate to win the match, it is wise to consider the latter even if it is an underdog.

Consider weather and altitude 🌦

Base any baseball over under betting strategy on these factors. More home runs are scored at high altitudes because of the rarefied air and the same goes for strong winds. Teams like Colorado and Chicago are fine examples of altitude, respectively wind.

Know the umpire’s hitbox 💡

A winning baseball betting totals strategy must factor in the umpire and his hitbox. Some have a large one and will easily call a strike, while others have a hitbox as small as a box of cards. This has a huge influence on the total number of runs scored in a match.

What are the top baseball sportsbooks?

Even if you have the perfect baseball betting winning strategy, such as f5 baseball strategy, you still need to find the best bookmakers to place your wagers. That’s why it’s important to undertake research and sign up for an account at a bookmaker that can meet the highest expectations. This is particularly useful when you employ a baseball betting for-profit strategy that depends on high odds and a solid variety of markets.


  • Stake – this bookmaker has a lot of betting options pregame and live, which makes it suitable for those who use the prop betting strategy. The overall odds are competitive and you can place the bets many hours and sometimes days in advance, to lock in on the best value.
  • 22bet – one of the most respected bookmakers, with a huge selection of mainstream and special betting markets. This is a good choice if you fancy accumulators and want to use a teaser betting strategy for baseball. It offers good odds and has generous bonuses for its players.
  • Betandyou – when it comes to live betting strategies on baseball, this is one of the finest sportsbooks you can find online. It has a huge assortment of in-play wagering options on the regular season and playoffs matches, so punters have sufficient alternatives.
  • Sportbet – this bookmaker is the obvious choice for punters using baseball betting odds strategy, because of the higher than average odds. They surpass the industry standard both pregame and live, with some of the most tempting options for those who fancy ante-post wagers on baseball.

Key metrics for baseball betting

Baseball is one of the best and easiest sports to bet on, but there are still a few terms that players don’t understand. If you want to come up with the best statistical baseball strategy for betting, it is important to understand these three concepts. They are useful for beginners but mostly for veteran punters:

Pythagorean wins 💰

This is a formula used to predict the win percentage based on the total number of runs scored and allowed. It is one of the easiest to understand and the name comes from the fact that it is inspired by the Pythagorean Theorem. The Win%= runs scored2/runs scored2 + runs allowed2, which is easy to calculate by baseball fans who use math for wagering.


Is similar to ERA, which stands for earned run average, yet it focuses on elements that are closely related to the pitcher. By removing the impact of the balls hit into the field, this baseball metric allows you to better understand the quality of pictures. The formula looks like this: ((HR x 13) + (3 x (BB + HBP)) – (2 x K)) / IP + FIP constant and the lowers the number, the better.

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) ✔️

This metric helps with crafting a profitable baseball betting strategy as it factors in the statistics runs created. The league average stands at 100, with high numbers indicating strong hitting players. The formula looks like this: [(wRAA per PA + league runs per PA) + (league runs per PA – ballpark factor x league runs per PA) / league wRC per plate appearance, not including pitchers)] x 100.

Baseball betting strategies for underdogs and favorites

Very few baseball matches are perfectly even, so there are always favorites and underdogs. Knowing how to bet on them is important when crafting any baseball wagers betting strategy. These are a few pointers you should consider when wagering on the strongest and weakest contenders in the MLB.

Further Information

  • Pitchers and underdog betting – always consider betting on underdogs if they have strong pitchers even if the hitting unit is weak. Pitchers are the most important players and because favorites get such high odds, you can employ a successful baseball betting house edge strategy on underdogs.
  • Playoff series betting – during playoffs, teams require several victories to advance to the next stage. Clean sweeps are a rarity, so you can bet on the underdogs with more confidence if the better team is already 2-0 up. This baseball underdog betting strategy should use low wagers.
  • Run line betting systems – when games are played at hitter-friendly arenas, such as Coors Field, many runs are likely to be scored. This is when baseball betting strategies and systems that imply a high run production are more effective and you can go for wider run line betting.
  • Broad handicaps for favorites – when dealing with dominant home teams, you should consider greater handicaps. The run line should be extended from -1.5 to -2.5 and even -3.5 when the underdogs have a terrible pitcher. Keeps the stakes low and exercise bankroll management

Other sports to bet on

Frequently asked questions about Baseball strategies

You should use a combination of favorite an underdog betting, with a mix of total/under. The ultimate betting on baseball strategy needs to factor in everything from teachers, hitters, arena and umpires.

This can be one of the best sports to wager on if you have the proper baseball online betting strategy. That’s because the odds are high and underdogs are more likely to cause upsets than in other sports

Favorites prevail in more than 60% of the time, which isn’t a high percentage, especially given the odds. To make a profit, you need to intelligently use run line instead of relying on money line bets.

Accumulators are a smart way to bet if you want to increase the odds without taking huge chances. A maximum of three selections on the betting slip is likely to deliver the best results.

These games are broadcasted in real-time and you can easily craft a live baseball betting strategy. This type of wagering is useful because it can take advantage of struggling pitchers or red-hot sluggers.

Crush the plate with the best baseball betting strategy

Baseball games are action-packed and there is something interesting happening all the time. Each time a player steps up to the plate, punters have the opportunity to place a lucrative bet. To navigate the stormy waters of this sport, you need the proper betting on baseball strategy. You need to factor in more elements than when betting on other sports and everything from weather and location of the arena to the umpire hit box will matter. Put in the time and this beautiful sport will reward you with some nice winnings.