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Betting on the Underdog – Underdog Betting Strategies Explained

Underdog betting is the status given to weaker teams in a contest, namely teams credited with a second chance. There are cases of underdog teams, like those from the “very good” category, playing against Champions League winners. The fixed odds of their victories can be unjustifiably high and usually profitable.

Underdog bets imply that you will be betting on the team less likely to win. In doing so, you expose yourself to certain risks but also benefit from higher odds. This doesn’t apply solely to match winners, but also to the number of goals, corner kicks, half-time results, and many other markets. Risk-averse players can use an Asian handicap to minimize the long-shot risks.

Summary of the article

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Why Bet on the Underdog?

If you back a favorite, you have a better chance to win but the odds might not be worthwhile. In the long run, if you keep betting on the lowest odds that don’t cover the risks, you are certain to lose. Underdogs are not necessarily bad teams, but they don’t look as good on paper as their opponents. Players tend to go with the better team and bookmakers exploit this tendency.

With the right approach, you can find outstanding odds and underdog betting opportunities. Handicaps can help level the playing field and find odds above even value, while the risks of losing are less than 50%. The way to make money betting on football is to only bet on odds that have a positive profit/risk margin.

Underdog Odds and Implied Probability

Research, experience, and analysis of stats can help you find value in the betting markets. The profitability line between low vs high odds is thin and it comes down to the ability to calculate implied probability.

The easiest example to understand this concept is to use even odds. If an NBA underdog gets odds of 3.00, the implied probability is calculated using this formula 1/3 x 100 = 33%. After analysis, you might consider that the team has a chance of winning 40% of the games against its opponent. This means that these money line odds exceed the risks, so it’s a good idea to place the bet.

Key Factors to Consider When Underdog Betting

Online betting sites publish the odds for upcoming events weeks and sometimes months in advance. This allows you to make an educated decision whether you bet on the favorites or underdog teams. To have a better chance than your peers, you should consider these facts before placing a bet:

1. Analyzing past performances

Class is permanent, while form is temporary. That’s why many betting sites will sometimes emphasize past performance over recent results. You need to strike the perfect balance between these two elements when betting on the underdog. Back-to-back victories in recent games signal good form and this is valuable for underdog betting.

Football is one of the best sports to bet on if you are willing to take a leap of faith with the underdog. A striker in good form can sometimes single-handedly win a game for his team. If you are up to date with the individual performances of key players, as well as the overall form of a team, you can make underdog betting profitable.

2. Considering recent developments, injuries, and strategy changes

Some players are more difficult to replace than others. The most valuable underdog betting tips revolve around injured and suspended players. The absence of a goalkeeper can be impossible to offset for a lower-league squad. When a team sitting high in the tables of a lower division misses a key player, the underdog has a good chance to win.

Upcoming matches of great importance can influence the coach’s strategy for the game. Find opportunities when top teams prioritize international matches, elimination games, or other goals. This means they have fewer resources and a desire to throw everything they’ve got in the next league game. You can bet on the underdog directly or use a point spread to reduce the risks.

3. Historical trends and patterns

Past performance is not enough to predict future results but can sway you in the right direction. Profitable football betting on underdogs is contingent on reading head-to-head results. Historical trends can paint an accurate image of how two teams compete against each other. They need to be compared against recent forms while carefully analyzing changes made to the main roster.

This information can also help you identify patterns in how teams compete early and late in the season. Some teams have a great starting formation but fatigue becomes an issue later on. You can adjust your betting strategy to account for this inability to compete at the highest level.

4. Monitoring betting lines and line movement

Regular and crypto betting sites will tinker with the odds based on public sentiment. When people bet a lot on the favorite the bookmaker will resort to all its shortening. As a result, the moneyline odds on the underdog will drift and you might lock in on odds where the benefits outweigh the risks. To be aware of betting lines and line movements, you must monitor them from the moment they are posted.

Some line movements can be predicted, especially when popular teams are scheduled to compete. Big names such as Real Madrid, Barcelona, Liverpool, and other European giants have many fans. Some bet on these favorites, so you can create sports betting strategies to cash in on high underdog odds.

5. Identifying alternative markets that offer value

There is more to underdog betting than moneyline bets and point spreads. Some of the best betting tips and strategies revolve around in-game events. Weak teams might be more motivated to win than their superior opponents. By taking more chances, they create scoring opportunities, while exposing themselves. 

This can lead to an increased number of corner kicks and yellow cards. Such explosive games are difficult to predict, but can easily be spotted if you watch the live streams. In-play wagering is incredibly useful when betting on the underdog. Live bookmakers broadcast most of the football games, so you can pick up on the vibes from the first minutes and take advantage.

Underdog Examples in Sports

Underdog betting is possible in all major sports because no matter how good they are, there is always a better team or athlete. The margins are slim and the differences blurred, but in most cases, there is a clear favorite. Perfectly balanced teams are a rarity, but these coin-flip events are the exception rather than the rule. Before you place a bet, it is worth looking at these three underdog examples from different sports:

  • Football – Manchester gets odds of 2.40 at home against Tottenham who are priced at 2.80. Tottenham is the underdog because if you bet $100 on them you can win $180, as opposed to $140 on United. The draw is the least likely outcome, with odds of 3.80.
  • Basketball – the Boston Celtics are favorites against the New York Knicks with odds of 1.50. The Knicks are the NBA underdog in this basketball game, as reflected by the odds of 2.80. You can find slightly better odds at the best sports betting exchanges, but the underdog status is obvious.
  • Tennis – Medvedev is a huge favorite against Monfils with odds of 1.20 compared to 4.60. The Russian has an implied probability of winning 83%, hence the low odds.  A wager on the veteran Frenchman would produce profits of 360% of the bet, which is huge.

Underdog Betting Tips That Work

To use this bet effectively, some underdog betting tips can be used to find the right value in this type of bet. Tips or any information obtained before the matches are crucial, especially if the betting odds are favorable. Therefore, in order to win, a bettor should:

Tip

  • Follow the schedules of the events – Schedules may affect the team over time. If a team is playing games the whole week against a team that has just a single match that week, the favorite has reduced chances of winning.

  • Bet live – Ensure that the match offers the possibility of live betting for better coverage of the event.

  • Bet fast – The odds keep changing drastically. Bet fast, especially during live betting, and consider betting against the public.

Types of Bets for Underdog Betting

The beauty of underdog sports betting is that you are not limited to a single market. You can take the outright winner or leverage the higher odds with a no-clean sheet bet. While there are many options, these three types of underdog betting stand out from the crowd:

  1. Moneyline bets – betting on the underdog in this format implies that you bet against the favorite. The weaker team must win for you to cash in on the higher odds.
  2. Point spread bets – this is a form of handicap betting where you give the underdog an advantage. In football games, this can be as little as +0.5 goals, while in basketball it can go all the way up to +20 points.
  3. Game totals – you can either bet on the total number of points scored in a game or the individual performance of each team. The latter can be a great arbitrage bet when betting the favorite in accumulators.

Underdog Betting Strategies

This can be a challenging market, so understanding “what underdog betting is” is insufficient. You need to find value in the odds constantly and only bet on the lesser team when it is worth it. Basic strategies like the ones below can help you tilt the balance in your favor and maximize your long-term gains:

  • Bankroll management – the biggest challenge when betting on the underdogs is to survive losing streaks. Variance is higher so you must keep your bankroll healthy through proper management. The occasional bonuses and promotions will help but first of all, you must manage your resources well.
  • Betting on high-risk markets – if you go down this path you must be bold and don’t hesitate to bet on risky events. If you are confident your money line underdog will prevail, you could go for the win-to-nil market instead of the money line. The goal is to extract the maximum profit from each bet.
  • Bet live on underdogs – weak teams can have exceptional matches but you need to be aware of their unexpected flurry. Live betting strategies are more reliable because they are based on reality rather than statistics. Take the time to watch live streams and bet on underdog teams that punch above their weight.

Common Pitfalls to Avoid When Betting on the Underdog

Underdog betting is called so for a reason. You bet on the worst team and in most cases this will lead to losses. It is a difficult way to handle your business, regardless of the sports to bet on. To survive and profit, you must avoid the common mistakes committed by inexperienced punters:

  • Betting too much on underdogs and losing large amounts on teams that don’t deliver;
  • Chasing losses and trying to recuperate the amounts quickly by increasing the stakes;
  • Choosing underdogs not based on research but on greed to win more through long odds;
  • Adding too many selections on parlay or system bets to produce higher odds.

Pros and Cons of Underdog Betting

There is no silver bullet in gambling and this applies to betting on the underdogs also. There are advantages and shortcomings when betting on lesser teams. That’s why you must make an educated decision by comparing pros and cons:

PROS

  • The odds are higher, which can help you win more money.
  • Some underdogs are strong, underestimated teams.
  • Underdog betting works for all types of sports.
  • You can minimize the risks through spread betting.

CONS

  • Involves greater risks, that can lead to losing streaks.
  • Difficult to distinguish between wealthy and worthless underdogs.
  • Requires more time and research than betting on favorites.

Trust the Underdogs and Best in their Success

If backing favorites would work, bookmakers would go bankrupt. You can’t make money in the long run if you only bet on the teams credited with the first chance. Underdog wagers present unique opportunities when you can find the right team. Research is needed but it pays off and the satisfaction of winning such a bet is immense.

All sports and betting markets are suitable for betting on the underdog. You can bet on the outright winner, handicaps or simply place a clean sheet bet. Teams credited with a second chance frequently cause major upsets. The only challenge is to predict the upset win and take advantage of it. The odds are always stacked against you, due to the house edge, so why not enjoy better values?

FAQ About Underdog Betting

A money line underdog is a team that starts with a second chance. The bookmaker considers it to be weaker than the opponent, based on form, head-to-head results, and other considerations.

Most of the bettors when deciding to bet on underdogs, usually bet strong amounts of money. But to be sure when you should bet on the underdog, you need to do some research, make some calculations and be sure that you will not lose big money.

You bet on what is theoretically the weaker team, based on the odds offered by bookies. You can bet on winners, spreads, game totals, and other special markets and enjoy favorable odds.

If your bettor uses the American Odds System, the underdog is listed with a plus sign (+) in front.

In underdog betting the minus sign (-) is about the favorite team and the plus sign (+) is precedent the number about the underdog.

According to the actual statistics, betting on the underdog is not "safe" all the time because the underdog is not the favorite team. So, you can lose money if you are not up to date with the underdog team.

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