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Betting Against the Public Sports Betting Strategy | Fading the Public

There are lots of interesting betting terms and “betting against the public” is perhaps the most intriguing one. It is one of the sports betting systems that can produce extremely good results but only if used the correct way and at the right time.

You can really make some good money by opposing the consensus and fading the public is exactly that. However, it is also much more than that: This is one of the most complex sports betting strategies you can use.

To help you, we created this guide: Below, you can find everything you need to know about betting against the public.

What is going against the public in betting?

We will start with the obvious question: what is betting against the public? We can also ask this question as what does fading the public mean because they both mean the same thing.

  • Actually, this is a literal term, and you can easily understand what it means: By fading the public, you are betting against popular opinion.
  • Is a specific team expected to win a match? Has everybody set a favorite, including the bookmakers, and they never give the other team a chance? Then it is time to act the opposite of the popular idea and place a bet in favor of the “unlikely” team.
  • The idea here is that especially in big and important matches, the media and bookmakers shape the public view in a certain direction – whereas when we look at fading the public stats, we see that they are mostly wrong.
  • Therefore, doing the opposite of the popular opinion in certain matches can result in winning, as well as winning more, as you get much higher odds for your bet (bookmakers always offer higher odds for underdogs: You can learn more by reading our how do bookies set odds guide). 

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Which bet types are good for fading the public?

Just like value football betting, you need to find the best markets to go against the public. Some bet types are much more suited for this job and we list them below.  

1. Point Spread

Point spread betting is the most common way of betting against the public. In this type of bet, the favorite and underdog teams get “plus” and “minus” points. To win the bet, the result of the game must match these points.

  • For example, a team that gets +2.5 must win that match with a difference of at least 2.5 points: it is not enough to just win the match.
  • If the vast majority believes that this team will win the match but by a maximum of 1 point difference, you will also be betting against the public by placing a bet for the 2.5-point difference.
  • In other words, this technique is more than just betting on the underdog team: Sometimes even a bet on the favorite team can be considered fading the public

2. Moneyline

Betting on the moneyline is a useful way of contrarian sport betting. This is the simplest and most basic type of sports bet: It is about who will win the match. It is also the most common example of betting against the public technique: If there is a favorite team in a match, you bet on the underdog. 

3. Over/Under Totals

Over/under betting is also suitable for fading the public. In this type of bet, the bookmaker sets a number for a certain outcome – for example, offers a bet on a total of 5 goals will be scored in the match. You can bet that the actual number of goals will be under or above (over) this figure. If the majority thinks there will be at least 6 goals (over), for example, you bet on there will be a maximum of 4 goals (under).

How to bet against the public?

In other words, how does betting against the public work? Regardless of the type of sports bet, what you are doing is acting against popular opinion. You can understand what the popular opinion is from bookmaker odds: If low odds are offered for a certain outcome, it means that a great majority is waiting for that outcome to occur. You can use this technique by simply betting on the outcome with high odds, which is seen as much less likely to occur. For example:

  • Let’s say there is a match between Team A and Team B.
  • 1.20 odds are offered for Team A and 3.40 odds are offered for Team B. The popular opinion is that Team A will win this match.
  • Simply place a bet in favor of Team B and that’s it: You have placed a bet against the public. 

When should you bet against the public?

Since you now have a general idea about sports betting going against the public, let’s talk about when to bet against the public too. Is there an ideal time for betting on the underdog or should you just keep backing the favourite? The biggest sporting upsets happen when you least expect them.


👉 Fading the public is not just a method where you can “guarantee” a win by acting contrary to popular opinion. Oftentimes, one team is considered the favorite for a reason: The other team is indeed weak. In such cases, you can’t expect to be successful just by betting on the underdog.

👉 The best results with the betting against the public technique are obtained when both teams are almost equally strong to each other. In such a case, if the media has started to favor a particular team, you may have an opportunity for betting against the public.

👉 You can also use odds shortening to determine the best time for fading the public. This term simply means that the probability of an outcome is increased, and the odds offered for that outcome begin to drop. In other words, the bookmaker has chosen a favorite. At this very moment, you can place a bet in favor of the increasing odds to bet against the public.

👉 Fading the public is a technique that can be used in any sport, but in some sports, it is easier to follow odds shortening. In this context, betting against the public NFL and betting against the public NBA are sports that have historically almost always yielded better results. We recommend that you focus on these two first and take a look at our NFL football betting guide. 

Does fading the public work?

Bet against the public is a technique that really works in the long run.

In the last 8 NFL seasons, 75% of bettors preferred a specific team in each match, but their winning odds varied between 46-47%.

In other words, those who acted contrary to popular opinion won more often, and because of their higher odds, their payouts were higher too.

However, as we mentioned above, this does not mean that you can win by opposing popular opinion every time. In general, we can say that if you suspect a media manipulation when both teams are nearly equal in strength, you can increase your chances of winning by betting against the public. But of course, never forget that this is not a “guarantee”.

Pros & cons of sports betting against the public


  • Can pay extremely well
  • Easy to use in moneyline bets
  • Can be used on the most popular sports


  • There is no “guarantee”
  • You need to find the right game & right bet

FAQ about betting against the public

Although both teams are equal in strength to each other, if a particular team is declared “favorite” by the media, we recommend that you try your luck in favor of the underdog with a moneyline bet: This is the best way of fading the public.

If you win your bet, yes: Betting against the public will always allow you to benefit from higher odds, which leads to an increase in the amount of payout.

This term is used for people who bet professionally. In other words, these people earn their living by betting, they have no other job.

It is the drop of odds for an outcome that achieved the vast majority of the bets (the popular opinion). For example, Team A drops from -7 points to -6 points despite collecting 75% of the bets. This is often caused by betting against the public techniques used by sharp bettors.

Use the right betting against the public strategy & win big

Betting against the public can pay extremely well if you do it right: We believe that you now know everything to start. We also recommend taking a look at our value in sports betting, make money with sports betting, and how to win at sports betting articles to expand your knowledge. Pick one of our recommended bookmakers, check the odds, and start fading the public today: This can be your lucky day!