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Value Football Betting – How to find value football bets in 2024

The beauty of sports betting is that although unpredictable, it doesn’t rely exclusively on chance.

With the right information and approach, punters can maximize the return on investment.

One of the best ways to succeed is through value football betting, a technique that we will explain in this guide.

If you want to learn how to get max value when betting on sports, you should definitely check out this 2024 value football betting guide.

We review the popular strategies and explain how probabilities work so you can make money betting on football without relying blindly on luck.

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Value football betting – The in-depth guide for 2023

Professional punters are on a constant hunt for value and they rely heavily on EVS betting. Extracting the most from the low odds vs high odds offer is a skill that one should master when trying to figure out how to win at sports betting.

Our in-depth guide will explain how to find the best odds to improve your winning margin. Granted there is no such thing as a sure bet, you can extract more juice from the odds offered by leading bookmakers. You’ll be able to use this newfound information to craft smart football strategies and systems and thrive on the long-term.

What is value betting and why does it matter?

The most important thing you need to master after you learn how to bet on football is value hunting. Once you understand how do bookies make money, you will have no problem in mastering football value betting. The house always prevails because the odds don’t accurately reflect the probability of a win.

Essentially, even the bookmakers offering the best odds margins will still retain the proverbial house edge. When betting on an event that has a 50% chance to happen, you will not get odds of 2.00, but rather 1.95.

This is not even the worst-case scenario, as some bookmakers will only offer odds of 1.90 instead of evens. Football value bets imply the fact that you find odds that exceed 2.00 on a 50% chance to happen. This is also the essence of arbitrage or matched betting strategies with guaranteed profits.

How does value betting on football work?

Now that you know the essence of value football betting, it is time to take a hands-on approach. Let’s consider an example from the English Premier League between Manchester United and Leeds. If bookies price a Red Devils’ win at 1.40 and offer 8.00 on Leeds. The implied probability of Manchester United winning based on these odds is 1/1.40 x 100 = 71.43.

If we believe that Manchester has an 80% chance of winning, then there is definitely value in the odds of 1.40. By contrast, if we estimate their chances to prevail at 70% or less, then these odds should be avoided. This is how the system works and its betting terms are easy to understand but difficult to master. The real challenge is knowing how to calculate betting football and this is something that requires time, practice and experience. A football betting value calculator with mastering the sports betting math.

Step by step placing of value football bets

Once you know how to read soccer odds and how to find value football bets, it is time to take advantage of your newfound knowledge. The system works for both outright wins and over under betting, so these six steps can help you in any case.

Step 1
Find a bookmaker that offers high closing odds
Step 2
Pick a match and abetting market
Step 3
Calculate the implied probability of the team winning
Step 4
Undertake research and estimate the real chances of victory
Step 5
Match in the expected value football betting against the odds
Step 6
Place the bet and hope for a favorable outcome

Why do value bets exist?

Bookmakers go to great lengths to maximize the house edge and odds are their best instruments. Finding value in football betting is a real challenge, precisely because this is what sportsbooks try to avoid. The reason it exists is that in spite of all the resources they have, bookmakers are unable to always estimate the exact chances of a team winning.

Sometimes there are details that they don’t know or are unable to factor in when calculating the odds. Punters can take advantage of dropping odds, shortening odds and boosted odds to create unique arbitrage opportunities. Any successful football value betting system implies a great deal of research, experience and the ability to correctly estimate the real chances of a team winning.

What is the value betting coin toss example?

We strongly believe that the football value bets example listed above can help you find the most lucrative odds. To better understand the value football betting, we can also use the coin toss example. This is the easiest to understand because a coin flip has only two possible outcomes: heads or tails.

The chances of winning are clearly 50% and the odds offered by bookmakers should always be 2.00. If you get odds of 1.99 you shouldn’t even consider betting, while you should always wager at odds of 2.01. In the long run, odds above 2.00 will guarantee winnings, as luck and miss fortune even out and math reigns supreme.

Tips & tricks for value betting on football

Betting for fun vs betting for profit are two different things because people have different expectations. Those who gamble for entertainment usually focus on their favorite teams and prefer favorites.

When it comes to achieving the best possible results, underdog betting can be just as profitable with the right value football betting tips. These hints can help you come up with the best staking plan for low odds and increase your football value betting success.

  • 👍 Steer clear of mainstream markets – it is easier to find football value bets when betting on special markets and less popular games. You have a better chance of finding information that will tilt the balance in your favor and boost profits. Don’t chase obscure matches just for the sake of it and focus on teams and championships that you know better.
  • 👍 Make use of alternative wagers – Asian handicaps are great for value betting football and they are accepted at all major sportsbooks. You can find them at arbitrage friendly bookmakers too and they give you more flexibility when placing bets. Half and quarter lines should always be on your radar as they have the potential of giving you an edge.
  • 👍 Mastered the art of live betting – the best value football betting opportunities are available to those who bet live. In-play wagering has the advantage of fast-changing odds that give bookies less time to calculate the value. If you know what to look for and correctly interpret the shifting value, this can be really profitable. Just accept all odds movement and focus on the live game.

How can I find and place a value bet?

Football value bets are pretty much everywhere at all major bookmakers, but you need the ability to identify them. One way to do it is to read a value football betting review, a virtual betting guide and tap into the knowledge of professionals. The alternative is to simply pay attention to the odds published on the websites of major sportsbooks.

Each time you place a bet, you should match the implied value of the odds offered against the expected value. To make the right calculation, it is vital to have a thorough understanding of the team’s strengths and weaknesses.

Pros and cons of value football betting


  • Gives you an edge in the long run
  • Helps you offset the house edge
  • Get a better understanding of odds movements


  • Difficult to find true value in the odds

Frequently Asked Questions about value football betting:

Proper football value betting requires a thorough understanding of the games. You calculate the implied odds vs the expected value of a team winning. This requires research and experience.

Sure bets are a myth, whereas football value bets are a reality. The latter give you a small advantage, by completely offsetting the house edge as you cash in on odds that exceed the risks taken.

Football value betting is just as profitable as using value odds in other sports. The only difference is that football is more popular, so there are more matches, betting markets and value football betting chances.

There are online apps that can help you in your quest but they shouldn’t be trusted blindly. You should do your own research and determine for yourself if the available odds hold value or not.

A football value betting system implies that you always bet on odds where the rewards exceed the risks. Arbitrage means that you bet on opposite outcomes at different bookmakers to guarantee a profit.

Boost your gambling profits with value football betting

Bookmakers rely on their coveted house edge to always have an advantage over punters. Through value football betting, you can offset this advantage and give yourself a fighting chance in long-term. Research and hard work is needed to correctly interpret the odds and find value in your bets.

Time-consuming and challenging as this might be, it is definitely worth the energy invested. Value football betting is the only way to level the playing field and give yourself the same chances as the bookmaker.


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