Dropping odds can be caused by many reasons and always results in a decrease in the initial odds offered by the bookmaker.
The opposite is also true: The odds may increase as the match date approaches.
In any case, changes in odds represent an opportunity for professional bettors. It is possible to turn this situation into an advantage by using the correct dropping odds strategy.
So, how is this done and how do you get the best odds margins? What is covered by dropping odds betting strategy?
In this guide, we will answer all these questions and give dropping odds tips.
- 1Dropping odds and rising odds: What do they mean?
- 2What is the reason for dropping odds?
- 3Dropping odds as an indication of fixed matches
- 4You can avoid dropping odds
- 5Using dropping odds to your advantage
- 6Dropping odds betting strategy ideas
- 7Drop rates according to bet types
- 8Average drop ranges
- 9Drop rates according to match starting times
- 10Pros and cons of dropping odds strategy in betting
- 11Frequently Asked Questions about dropping and rising odds strategy
- 12Use a dropping odds strategy to maximize your payouts
Best Bookmakers to Bet on Dropping Odds in 01 November 2023 – Updated List
Dropping odds and rising odds: What do they mean?
What is the reason for dropping odds?
So, what’s the reason for this? Before betting companies offer odds, they do research and find out, for example, what the odds of an over 2.5 bet will be. Of course, it is not possible to calculate with 100% accuracy, but mathematically it is possible to make a consistent estimate of the likelihood of a particular result.
If the bookmaker offers 2.00 for an over 2.5 bet but drops it afterward, something has changed. Over 2.5 dropping odds (or any other kind of odd drops) may be due to any of the following:
We could go on, but you get what we mean: Dropping odds is a thing that happens when the probability of an outcome decreases. If the bookmaker changes the odd it offers for over under betting, for example, this means something has changed in real life that will affect the initial calculation.
Dropping odds can occur in different types of sports betting such as EVS betting and is a situation that bettors constantly encounter. The opposite is also true and odds may arise for the same reasons. There are a variety of football strategies and systems that use these changes in odds – we’ll discuss them in more detail below.
Dropping odds as an indication of fixed matches
For example, if the odds of 3.00 are offered for Team A losing the match, but this odd suddenly drops to 1.00, this may be due to a fixed match because the bookmaker knows that Team A will win. However, there are two points to be considered here:
- Fixed matches are rare situations encountered in real life. Odd changes don’t always mean there is a fraud, like shaving points for example. As we mentioned above, there are many reasons for dropping odds.
- You should be suspicious of fixed matches only if there is a dramatic change in odds. Otherwise, a decrease (or increase) means that an odd adjustment is being made as usual: Bookmakers decrease or increase the initial odds as the match date approaches, this is normal.
You can avoid dropping odds
There is a very simple way to avoid the dropping odds situation: To place your bets as soon as the odds are announced. As we mentioned above, there is always a difference between the initial odds offered by bookmakers and the odds offered as the match date approaches.
Odds can go up or down – whichever happens, some bettors may not want to take that risk. For this reason, you may not be affected by odd changes by placing a bet as soon as the initial odds are announced. Another solution is to place your bet after the odds have stabilized (e.g. 24 hours before the match starts).
Using dropping odds to your advantage
You can also use live dropping odds strategy for live bets. Bookmakers offer you the cashout option while the match continues. Likewise, live odds continue to change throughout the match. By using cashout offers at the right moment, you can turn odd changes in your favor and make a profit.
Before doing this, take a look at our guide to live betting strategies and make sure you play at betting sites with live streaming. Do not forget that it is also possible to do partial cash out, we talk about this in detail in our guide to best cash out betting sites.
Try to find sites that offer noticeably different odds from other bookmakers. For example, if all bookmakers offer 2.00 for one possibility, but a single site offers 2.80 for the same probability, then this is an exploit you can use. While the odds are still high, you can place a bet and make profits even if they drop later.
Or, you can sell your bet which you placed with a very low odd by using the cashout method and still make a profit. It is even possible to trade your bets (e.g. Betfair dropping odds trade) and make a profit regardless of the outcome of the match. Odds that are too high or too low than market values can be used for profitable football betting.
Dropping odds betting strategy ideas
Here are a couple more dropping odds strategy ideas you can use:
- Heavy Boat Theory: When a ship gets loaded too much it starts sinking, right? The Heavy Boat theory is built on this. If a million people believe that Team A will win a match and place a bet on this possibility, the bookmaker’s offered odds for Team A will drop. However, this does not mean that a million people are right. Dropping odds sometimes shows that betting for the other team can be more profitable. This is called betting against dropping odds and should be used specifically as a football dropping odds strategy.
- You Can Use Accept All Odds Movement Option: When placing a bet, you are asked if you want to select an option called accept all odds movement. If you tick, you will be affected by odd changes that occur after placing a bet. Otherwise, you are deemed to have accepted whatever odds were at the time the bet was placed. Sometimes it is a better idea to be affected by odds changes in real-time, especially if you plan to evaluate cashout offers.
- Learn the average drop rates of different scenarios. The drop rates of odds will change according to bet types and time left before a match starts. All of these will affect your profit rates, so learn the average drop rates of different scenarios. We are sharing a couple of tables below to help you.
Drop rates according to bet types
TYPE OF THE BET
AVERAGE DROP (%)
WIN RATE (%)
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
Average drop ranges
RANGE OF DROP (%)
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
Drop rates according to match starting times
RANGE OF THE TIME (minutes)
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
Pros and cons of dropping odds strategy in betting
- It can give you an idea of what the probability of a particular outcome is
- It is possible to make a profit by exploiting odds differences
- It is a simple strategy to use
- Some bettors may find odds changes too volatile
- You have to wait for the right moment to make a profit
Frequently Asked Questions about dropping and rising odds strategy
This depends on your needs and expertise. A tracker will keep checking odds offered by bookies and inform you about changes. You can do this yourself by using bookmakers with statistics. We recommend doing it “manually” at the start so you can understand how dropping odds works.
No. No betting strategy will always make you win, and this includes the dropping odds strategy. Don't see this system as a guaranteed way to win.
The higher the odds, the less likely that outcome will occur. So if you win, your payout will be big, but this is unlikely to happen. So yes, you can still win, but your chances are low.
It depends on how much risk you want to take. Some bettors consider tracking odds changes as a separate game and enjoy it (check our how to place a bet online guide.) Some do not want to take risks and prefer to use initial odds. In other words, this depends on you.
Use a dropping odds strategy to maximize your payouts
You can profit from dropping odds by using the differences between low odds vs high odds to your advantage. Of course, you need to use low odds betting strategies like the best staking plan for low odds or our low odds laying system, but overall dropping odds might be a more beneficial situation than you think.
By using the dropping odds strategy mentioned above, you can be affected by the changes as little as possible, or you can turn these changes into a separate bet on their own. In any case, remember that you can turn dropping odds into an advantage. Good luck!