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Dropping Odds – Dropping Odds Betting Strategy Explained [2020]


Dropping odds can be caused by many reasons and always results in a decrease in the initial odds offered by the bookmaker.

The opposite is also true: The odds may increase as the match date approaches.

In any case, changes in odds represent an opportunity for professional bettors. It is possible to turn this situation into an advantage by using the correct dropping odds strategy.

So, how is this done and how do you get the best odds margins? What is covered by dropping odds betting strategy?

In this guide, we will answer all these questions and give dropping odds tips.

Top 10 online bookmakers where you can bet on dropping odds [2020] - Updated list

Rank
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10
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Rating 9.90 out of 10

Dropping odds and rising odds: What do they mean?

To explain the issue of dropping odds, we first need to explain how to read the odds. So let’s start by explaining how to read soccer odds or how to read baseball odds. Betting sites post their proposed odds for a match well before the match date.

Let’s start with football, one of the easiest sports to bet on, for example. Let’s assume that a match will be played between Manchester and Liverpool on 01.12.2020. Sports betting sites will start offering odds for this match from November, and give these odds, for example:

  • Manchester 2.00 – Liverpool 3.20

This offer is about who will win the match, but different odds will also be offered for many other outcomes such as over 2.5 goals, under 2.5 goals, over 1.5 goals, and under 1.5 goals. You should read this offer as follows:

  • If you deposit 100 EUR for the “Manchester wins” result, you will win 200 EUR.
  • If you deposit 100 EUR for the “Liverpool wins” result, you will win 320 EUR.

So far so good, right? These odds show us that Manchester is the favorite team and Liverpool is the underdog. (Speaking of which, make sure to take a look at our underdog betting guide.) So bookmakers think Manchester is more likely to win the match and therefore offer a low odd. This is a general rule: o-Odds offered for the most likely outcome are always low.

Let us remind you once again that these odds were offered in November. Now imagine visiting the same site just one day before the start of the match and seeing this:

  • Manchester 1.80 – Liverpool 3.40

So, what happened here? The bookmaker is the same, the match is the same, but football dropping odds have occurred. The closing odds are different from the initial ones. In other words, the bookmaker has reduced its odds for Manchester. Here’s the answer to the question of what does dropping odds mean: Dropping odds is a literal term, meaning that the odds offered before the match date drops as the start date of the match approaches.

Soccer dropping odds are more common, but you can see this in all other sports. In other words, situations such as horse racing dropping odds and tennis dropping odds are frequently encountered too. Likewise, there may be variation in the odds offered for a particular outcome, such as corner betting odds dropping, dropping odds over-under betting, and dropping odds Asian handicap.

What is the reason for dropping odds?

So, what’s the reason for this? Before betting companies offer odds, they do research and find out, for example, what the odds of an over 2.5 bet will be. Of course, it is not possible to calculate with 100% accuracy, but mathematically it is possible to make a consistent estimate of the likelihood of a particular result.

If the bookmaker offers 2.00 for an over 2.5 bet but drops it afterward, something has changed. Over 2.5 dropping odds (or any other kind of odd drops) may be due to any of the following:

Disability

This is more likely to happen if a player is injured after the initial odds are offered and a better player will play instead. For this reason, odds go down.

Weather Forecast

As the match date approaches, more accurate predictions can be made about the weather, which will affect the likelihood of an outcome. Sometimes a match may even need to be canceled, resulting in dropping odds blocked matches.

Team Lineup

Any changes made to the players in the team also increase or decrease the probability of a probability occurring.

We could go on, but you get what we mean: Dropping odds is a thing that happens when the probability of an outcome decreases. If the bookmaker changes the odd it offers for over under betting, for example, this means something has changed in real life that will affect the initial calculation.

Dropping odds can occur in different types of sports betting such as EVS betting and is a situation that bettors constantly encounter. The opposite is also true and odds may arise for the same reasons. There are a variety of football strategies and systems that use these changes in odds – we’ll discuss them in more detail below.

Dropping odds as an indication of fixed matches

Alert

We mentioned above that the dropping odds situation arises from all kinds of real-life developments. These include fixed matches. If a bookmaker gets a tip on a fixed match, he will naturally make a change in the odds he offers. This change will usually take place by decreasing them.

For example, if the odds of 3.00 are offered for Team A losing the match, but this odd suddenly drops to 1.00, this may be due to a fixed match because the bookmaker knows that Team A will win. However, there are two points to be considered here:

  • Fixed matches are rare situations encountered in real life. Odd changes don’t always mean there is a fraud. As we mentioned above, there are many reasons for dropping odds.
  • You should be suspicious of fixed matches only if there is a dramatic change in odds. Otherwise, a decrease (or increase) means that an odd adjustment is being made as usual: Bookmakers decrease or increase the initial odds as the match date approaches, this is normal.

You can avoid dropping odds

There is a very simple way to avoid the dropping odds situation: To place your bets as soon as the odds are announced. As we mentioned above, there is always a difference between the initial odds offered by bookmakers and the odds offered as the match date approaches.

Odds can go up or down – whichever happens, some bettors may not want to take that risk. For this reason, you may not be affected by odd changes by placing a bet as soon as the initial odds are announced. Another solution is to place your bet after the odds have stabilized (e.g. 24 hours before the match starts).

Using dropping odds to your advantage

Tip

We can now start talking about betting tips dropping odds and strategy. There are many methods that you can use this change in odds to your advantage. But there is no such thing as the best dropping odds strategy: The strategy you should use depends on how and when you bet. For example:

You can also use live dropping odds strategy for live bets. Bookmakers offer you the cashout option while the match continues. Likewise, live odds continue to change throughout the match. By using cashout offers at the right moment, you can turn odd changes in your favor and make a profit.

Before doing this, take a look at our guide to live betting strategies and make sure you play at betting sites with live streaming. Do not forget that it is also possible to do partial cash out, we talk about this in detail in our guide to best cash out betting sites.

Try to find sites that offer noticeably different odds from other bookmakers. For example, if all bookmakers offer 2.00 for one possibility, but a single site offers 2.80 for the same probability, then this is an exploit you can use. While the odds are still high, you can place a bet and make profits even if they drop later.

Or, you can sell your bet which you placed with a very low odd by using the cashout method and still make a profit. It is even possible to trade your bets (e.g. Betfair dropping odds trade) and make a profit regardless of the outcome of the match. Odds that are too high or too low than market values can be used for profitable football betting.

Dropping odds betting strategy ideas

Here are a couple more dropping odds strategy ideas you can use:

  • Heavy Boat Theory: When a ship gets loaded too much it starts sinking, right? The Heavy Boat theory is built on this. If a million people believe that Team A will win a match and place a bet on this possibility, the bookmaker’s offered odds for Team A will drop. However, this does not mean that a million people are right. Dropping odds sometimes shows that betting for the other team can be more profitable. This is called betting against dropping odds and should be used specifically as a football dropping odds strategy.
  • You Can Use Accept All Odds Movement Option: When placing a bet, you are asked if you want to select an option called accept all odds movement. If you tick, you will be affected by odd changes that occur after placing a bet. Otherwise, you are deemed to have accepted whatever odds were at the time the bet was placed. Sometimes it is a better idea to be affected by odds changes in real-time, especially if you plan to evaluate cashout offers.
  • Learn the average drop rates of different scenarios. The drop rates of odds will change according to bet types and time left before a match starts. All of these will affect your profit rates, so learn the average drop rates of different scenarios. We are sharing a couple of tables below to help you.

Drop rates according to bet types

TYPE OF THE BET

AVERAGE DROP (%)

WIN RATE (%)

RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)

Home Team Wins
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-19.98
WIN RATE (%)
43.27
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-4.20
Away Team Wins
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-20.78
WIN RATE (%)
29.64
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-6.13
Draw
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-17.93
WIN RATE (%)
23.49
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-4.01
Under 2.5 Goals
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-16.66
WIN RATE (%)
52.18
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
+0.22
Over 2.5 Goals
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-16.45
WIN RATE (%)
54.55
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-6.19
Under 1.5 Goals
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-17.90
WIN RATE (%)
29.35
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-2.14
Over 1.5 Goals
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-15.28
WIN RATE (%)
80.28
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
+0.58
Home Team Handicap
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-18.75
WIN RATE (%)
54.51
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-4.02
Away Team Handicap
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-18.82
WIN RATE (%)
55.48
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-3.01

Average drop ranges

RANGE OF DROP (%)

AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)

RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)

Between 0 / -5
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
49.82
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-7.92
Between -5 / -10
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
44.20
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-7.18
Between -10 / -15
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
44.02
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-5.44
Between -15 / -20
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
43.02
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-5.45
Between -20 / -25
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
42.63
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-4.69
Between -25 / -30
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
41.67
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-1.42
-30 and more
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
40.20
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-3.92

Drop rates according to match starting times

RANGE OF THE TIME (minutes)

AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)

RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)

15 and less
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
42.91
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-0.65
15 - 30
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
44.15
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-3.60
30 - 45
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
44.75
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-5.93
45 - 60
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
44.30
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-8.79
60 - 120
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
45.96
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-6.55
120 - 240
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
44.83
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-6.83
240 - 480
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
42.86
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-9.21
480 - 720
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
41.52
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-8.21
720 - 1440
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
42.74
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-8.93
1440 - 2880
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
41.12
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-7.76
More than 2880
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
38.12
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-8.91

Pros and cons of dropping odds strategy in betting

PROS

  • It can give you an idea of what the probability of a particular outcome is
  • It is possible to make a profit by exploiting odds differences
  • It is a simple strategy to use

CONS

  • Some bettors may find odds changes too volatile
  • You have to wait for the right moment to make a profit

Frequently Asked Questions about dropping and rising odds strategy

This depends on your needs and expertise. A tracker will keep checking odds offered by bookies and inform you about changes. You can do this yourself by using bookmakers with statistics. We recommend doing it “manually” at the start so you can understand how dropping odds works.

No. No betting strategy will always make you win, and this includes the dropping odds strategy. Don't see this system as a guaranteed way to win.

The higher the odds, the less likely that outcome will occur. So if you win, your payout will be big, but this is unlikely to happen. So yes, you can still win, but your chances are low.

It depends on how much risk you want to take. Some bettors consider tracking odds changes as a separate game and enjoy it. (You can find more detailed information in our how to place a bet online guide.) Some do not want to take risks and prefer to use initial odds. In other words, this depends on you.

Use a dropping odds strategy to maximize your payouts

You can profit from dropping odds by using the differences between low odds vs high odds to your advantage. Of course, you need to use strategies like the best staking plan for low odds, but overall dropping odds might be a more beneficial situation than you think.

By using the dropping odds strategy mentioned above, you can be affected by the changes as little as possible, or you can turn these changes into a separate bet on their own. In any case, remember that you can turn dropping odds into an advantage. Good luck!