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Betting on Draws Explained – Strategies for Betting on Draws Market

A bet-on-draws market is a type of sports bet where bettors predict that the match will end in a draw or tie. It typically applies in football and means that both teams will have the same score at the end of the game.

This sports wager is attractive among punters because of its high odds and larger potential payouts. We have explained further in the betting article below how this often comes with higher risks involved. Especially when anticipating that neither of the teams will gain an advantage over the other.

Best Bookmakers to Bet on Draws in 04 October 2024 – Updated List

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Learn What a “Draw” is Before You Bet on Draws

The draw means that the final result is equal in competitive sports. So, for example, if a football match ends with a score like 0-0 or 2-2, it ends with a draw. Such matches do not have a winner, both teams or players earn the same points. This can sometimes change depending on league rules and position in the league.

In this context, betting on draws is not a preferred option by most bettors because they don’t know how to make money betting on football. Almost everyone believes that the probability of a match ending in a draw is very low. However, more football matches than expected result in a draw. Although it varies according to the league and teams, it is possible to say that this probability is 35% on average. In the table below, you can see the percentage of matches that ended with a draw in the different leagues:

NAME OF THE LEAGUE

DRAW RATE

Botola Pro (Morocco)
DRAW RATE
50.00%
Ligue 1 (Tunisia)
DRAW RATE
50.00%
Premier League (Kenya)
DRAW RATE
50.00%
Segunda (Portugal)
DRAW RATE
44.44%
League One (Scotland)
DRAW RATE
44.00%
Div 1 (Slovakia)
DRAW RATE
43.33%
Primera RFEF Gr. 2 (Spain)
DRAW RATE
40.74%
Serie A (Italy)
DRAW RATE
40.00%
Premier League (Nigeria)
DRAW RATE
40.00%
Segunda RFEF Gr. 3 (Spain)
DRAW RATE
40.00%

We can keep expanding the list, but you get what we mean. The draw is an outcome that happens more often than expected. Therefore, betting on draws can be a profitable option when used correctly. Moreover, it should be noted that it is not as complicated as over/under betting and you do not have to find arbitrage-friendly bookmakers. Simply put, you are placing a bet that the game will end in a draw – it is as simple as that. Bet draws is one of the easiest football strategies and systems you can use. 

Let’s also mention that the 1×2 betting system is used for bet draws in football. In this system, 1 represents the home team, X represents the draw, and 2 represents the away team.

An example 1×2 betting offer looks like this:
Team A 2.40 / Draw 3.80 / Team B 2.60
So Team A is 1, Team B is 2, and Draw is X. Using this system, it is possible to place a bet like this on a series of matches:

In this example, you would make a total of 5 bets and predict a different outcome for each one. 1×2 betting system provides a fast and practical solution for mass bets.

Bet Draws Prediction by Odds: Is it Possible?

Further Information

Odds decrease or increase according to the probability of an outcome happening. For example, if the favorite of a match is Team A and everyone expects that team to win the match, the odds will be quite low (1.00 for example). However, if Team B’s odds are 4.00 in the same match, this means no one expects it to win the match: Team B is an underdog. (Speaking of which, don’t forget to check our underdog betting guide.) In other words, the lower the probability of an outcome occurring, the higher the odds offered.

This process is the same in all types of sports betting and for the same reason, the odds offered can be used to determine how likely an outcome is to occur. For example, if 1.20 is offered for a draw result in a football match, the bookmaker and other bettors think that the match is likely to end in a draw. If the suggested odds are 3.80, it means that the match is considered to be less likely to end in a draw.

Thus, the odds can indeed show what the probability of a draw is happening. However, this should not be perceived as a mathematical certainty or guarantee. It should not be considered that the outcome of the draw is impossible (or vice versa) just because it has high odds. The odds just show what the general opinion is.

How to Make a Football Draw Prediction?

There are a couple of ways that can help you to predict the draw result, especially in football matches. In theory, bet draws can be used in any sport, but due to its unique rules and gameplay, this betting strategy is especially effective in football. So, here is how you can predict the draw result and bet on draws in football:

1️⃣ Poisson Distribution – This is one of the advanced betting strategies for the draw betting market. It was created in the 19th century by Simeon Denis Poisson and can use historical sports data to make predictions. The formula looks like this: P = (λk e –λ) / k!

The equation uses P as the probability, “k” as the number of draws, “λ” as the expected number of draws, “e” as Euler’s number, and k! as the factorial of k. This is a complex mathematical approach that can be used by experienced punters at online betting sites.


2️⃣ Normal distribution – Enhances a draw betting system that uses an analytical approach. This betting term uses two parameters, the average and standard deviation. It is also used to create Bell or Gaussian distribution, so its usefulness goes beyond sports.

You track the number of draws logged by a team over a long period. Then you analyze recent results and see how many standard deviations were recorded in the last 10 or 20 games. You can shape the draw betting strategy based on how a team under-performs or over-delivers in this area.


3️⃣ Other mathematical factors – Football is one of the great sports to bet on and draws have the best odds. After you learn how to bet on draws, you can apply math to boost your chances. Calculating standard deviation can help decide when one team is likely to finish a game undecided.
Take all the games played as a home team and away in the domestic championship, national cups, and international tournaments. To calculate standard deviation, you begin by calculating the mean. See how many draws were recorded in the last 10 games compared to the previous year. Take differences, square them, and average the result. The square root of variance is called standard deviation.


4️⃣ Playing styleSearch for evenly matched two teams when you place bets on football draws. This applies to different types of betting, as such games are usually close and decided by a single goal. Equally important is to choose top leagues with a lower number of goals per match. Most draws are 0-0 and 1-1 so undecided matches are more likely to occur in these championships.

Team motivation is important when making a draw bet prediction. If the teams are fighting for a spot in the European championship or try to avoid relegation, they will be more prudent. You can bet on teams desperate not to be sent to the lower league to settle for a draw. Teams with subpar strikers are more likely to fight at the bottom of the standings, so find those with decent backlines.


5️⃣ Motivation. Sometimes the underdog team has a lot to lose and can perform unexpectedly in a given match. While this is difficult to predict, you can imagine that a team about to leave the league will be more motivated than ever. Motivation may not be strong enough to win the match, but it can be effective enough to end it with a draw.

Draw Betting Strategies You Can Use

This is not a how to bet on football guide, so we will skip the basic tips and give advanced suggestions directly. You can increase your chances of winning bet on draws, and consequently win big on football bets, using the following tactics.

Use arbitrage betting

It is possible to find mobile bookmakers with different odds to bet on draws in football. You have to back a different result in each of them and make a profit from the difference. It is not possible to describe this as a true bet draws strategy. As you are not only betting on the draw result but whatever the outcome is, you are certain to make a profit.

Apply a progressive draw betting strategy

You can choose a specific team and always bet on the draw result throughout the season. Or, you can even use a progressive system to increase the bet amount after each time you lose. The Martingale or the Fibonacci betting system can be easily used in a draw betting strategy.

One of the matches of the selected team will result in a draw. Then all your winnings will be large enough to cover all your losses as you keep increasing your stake. However, do not use this bet draws strategy aggressively, as it can cause you to go bankrupt if the draw result does not occur within a short time.

Bet on draws in-play

It is also possible to make bets on draws in live betting. We can say that live bets are more suitable for this job. Being able to follow the course of the match in real-time allows you to make a more consistent prediction about the probability of the draw result. Don’t forget to check our live betting system guide.

Choose system bets

With betting accumulators you can play bet draws for multiple matches and spread the risk. Or, on the contrary, you can place draw no bet accumulators. These are just some tips on how to win football accumulators, but you can find more in our guide. With system bets the risk is lower but so are the profits. You should choose them with risky bets. With the 2 out of 5 system, you choose 5 matches you think are going to draw. You will need two out of five matches to be correct to have a winning bet.

Evaluate cashout offers

Sometimes it can be more profitable to evaluate cashout offers than to wait for the outcome of the match. If cash-out or partial cash-out betting sites make a satisfactory offer for bet draws, feel free to try them.

Look for reliable advice and good bonuses

Get bet draws for today’s advice from a reliable and objective source. Look for bonuses at various betting sites and use them to place risk-free bets.

Statistics

When you bet on single matches or place system bets, you need to have your facts straight. Games are unpredictable, but statistics help you predict football draws with higher accuracy. The obvious thing to look for is the number of goals scored and conceded. Strong defensive teams are preferred, as most of the draws are low-scoring games.

Injury concerns are always at the top of the list when it comes to a statistical model. To make money betting on football, you need to keep track of suspended, absent or injured players. The key footballers are the ones with defensive roles and the goalkeeper. Current form matters, but you should also check out head-to-head results and home and away performances.

Match circumstances

No two football games are the same and past performance can’t predict future results. Football betting is a fun and challenging thing precisely due to different match circumstances. You need to pay attention to the particularities of each game, including team objectives and priorities. Offensive teams will switch into defensive gear when they can settle for a draw to avoid relegation.

Straight betting on draws is the sensible thing to do ahead of international tournaments. Some of the top European teams will rest key players in the domestic games. They will focus on having a squad in top shape for the more important Champions League or Europa League match.

The best draw prediction sites

Crypto betting sites are some of the most active ones when it comes to providing draw betting tips. Established bookmakers are reluctant to provide this kind of information. You can find plenty of prediction websites and sports betting tips. They include everything from outright winners, to gain totals and special markets.

Even the best draw predictions shouldn’t be trusted blindly. If you just learned how to bet on football, you can use them to narrow down the search. It is still wise to do extensive research and make your own choices. Such resources are useful but offer no guarantee of success.

Look “Under the Radar”

Understanding the draw meaning in betting is easy, but betting on this market poses challenges. You need to find the best betting odds  consistently to offset the house edge. This means that you should find value in the odds available and seek unique opportunities.

When looking for such openings, you must think outside the box. Look at the fixtures and see what opponents certain teams will face. Some will choose to rest key players ahead of derbies which opens great draw betting options. This is also a good opportunity for underdog betting at terrific odds.

Is Draw Betting the Right Choice for You?

PROS

  • Sometimes surprisingly high odds can be achieved
  • You can make healthy evaluations for the probability of draw by doing research
  • Can be used in any sport (but football is best suited)

CONS

  • Draw result is statistically low
  • You must choose the right leagues

Draw Betting Can Be a Profitable Method When Used Right

Bet draws can be an effective betting option that will surprise you, at both classic bookmakers and crypto betting sites. With the right match, you can make very high winnings. You just need to do your research, choose the right league, and find the right teams. Bet on draws will only work when used this way. We will continue to provide information about bets on draws in football, so be sure to visit our site regularly. Good luck!

FAQ About Betting on Draws

Focus on games where favorites with strong defenses play on the road against teams at the bottom of the standings. The draw odds will be great and the host have a decent chance to salvage one point.

Betting odds are available on draws at every bookmaker before and during the game. This is one of the most popular bets and one of the three possible outcomes for a football match.

Football is the best sport because of the high likelihood of draws being recorded. The odds are great and there are plenty of football betting draw tips.

Look for evenly-matched teams with strong defenses and mediocre strikers. Focus on those who would benefit from a single point, therefore motivated to defend.

The best betting advice for draws is to use single bets. Draw accumulator betting tips might tempt you with high odds, but they are risky.

This is a possible betting strategy for draws but it is risky. You need to increase the size of the bet by 1.3 just to break even and you can quickly reach intimidating amounts.

Even with the best draw tips, players are reluctant to bet on undecided games. There are certain risks and it can be frustrating rooting for the scoreless draw and always backing the team trailing.

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