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Closing Odds – Guide to Beating the Closing Odds [2020]


Online sports betting is serious business and if you hope to make a profit playing, you need to treat it accordingly.

This means that serious punters won’t take any breaks and will use every advantage at their disposal to offset the house edge.

Juggling with opening and closing odds is just one of the many challenges that one needs to handle to thrive in this competitive environment.

In our guide, we will teach you how to read closing odds and how to use probability and statistics to tap into their immense potential.

Top 10 online bookmakers where you can bet on closing odds [2020] - Updated list

Rank
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1
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2
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3
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4
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5
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6
-
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7
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8
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9
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10
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Rating 9.90 out of 10

How to bet on closing odds in 2020

Don’t let the name intimidate you, because it’s very easy to learn how to beat closing odds. All you need is an analytical approach and the patience to look for the best odds margins to maximize your profits.

The same system is used regardless of your sport of choice, so if you learn how to read soccer odds, you will also know how to read baseball odds and how to use them in conjunction with opening odds.

In a nutshell, closing odds are the final value given by the bookmaker to a specific event. They are published minutes before the game begins and they are the final form of the opening odds. Their evolution depends solely on market movements, so compared to the opening value these can be dropping odds or rising ones.

There are many factors that can influence this change in odds and in our 2020 guide, we will focus on the most common things that can help you be profitable in the long-term.

How do closing odds work?

We strongly believe that an example will help you better understand the system than simply explaining the closing odds meaning. Just like the closing odds definition states, these are the final odds that you get just before the game begins. We use football as an example because this is the easiest sport to bet on, but this is a universal example that also works with NBA closing odds, NFL closing odds and MLB closing odds, so you can apply it to any sport to increase potential winnings.

Assume PSG plays against Marseille in the French first division, and a betting exchange such as Betfair publishes the early odds. PSG would get 1.50, a draw would be priced at 4.50 and an away victory will probably get something around 5.50. What usually happens is that casual punters bet on the favorites, so bookmakers will adjust the odds accordingly. The odds on PSG will drop maybe as low as 1.40, the draw would remain more or less the same, but the Betfair closing odds on Marseille to win would rise to 6.00.

Once you understand how closing soccer odds work, you can use this information in your advantage and make profits from evs betting. Since you can anticipate and accept all odds movement you can use these variations in your advantage to maximize profits. If you want to bet on the favorite, you should place your bets early, but if you prefer underdog betting, you should wait until the game starts. You are basically playing with the low odds vs high odds and through analysis, determine their movements to win more.

Bet on closing odds – Step by Step

Now that you know what closing odds are and how they work, you can use football strategies and systems to extract the most from what they have to offer. There are plenty of things to consider to maximize your winnings, but these are the 4 key steps that apply to all types of sports betting.

  1. Learn how to find closing odds for past games to see how your bookmaker of choice adjusts the odds based on how punters wager. Different sports betting sites have different systems, but they all adjust the odds to reflect the manner in which punters bet. The goal is to find the widest swings, because this will lead to bigger winnings if you make the right call.
  2. Compare the opening odds offered by several bookies and if needed, open accounts with them. This is useful when dwelling on the over-under betting because there can be significant odds movements. In double legged football matches these changes can be dramatic and you can extract a lot of value when betting on over 2.5 goals and under 2.5 goals markets. These are the most popular ones, but the differences between opening and closing odds can also be exploited when betting on over 1.5 goals and under 1.5 goals to be scored.
  3. Take the time to analyze the match, so you know the direction in which the odds are likely to go. To come up with the best staking plan for low odds you need to anticipate how much players are willing to bet on the favorites. It pays off to have accounts at bookmakers with statistics because this can help you cut down on the time spent with research.
  4. The final step is to bet on your team and market of choice to capitalize on the odds movement. Sometimes, it is worth to wait for the match to begin, assuming you have an account at betting sites with live streaming. That’s because the in-play odds can continue the trend of the closing odds and keep shifting during the first few minutes. These can be used in conjunction with other live betting strategies for football, tennis, basketball, and any other sports.

Why should you pay attention to closing odds?

Bookmakers will always give themselves an advantage by working with the odds and there’s nothing you can do about the basic house edge. In order to come up with a profitable football betting system, you need to learn how to take advantage of the things that bookies can’t control.

Odds movements are the result of players betting on one team or the other and if you are patient enough, you will learn how the system works. The beauty of closing odds is that they give you the chance to maximize potential profits for mainstream point spread betting and money line betting as well as special markets.

Tips and tricks for beating closing odds

Tip

As soon as you learn how to place a bet online, you should try to master the art of using closing odds in your advantage. These are a few things to consider to succeed where others fail and win as much as possible from each match without taking additional risks.

  • Bet on the favorites early and late on underdogs – this is the most valuable tip for beating closing odds and it applies to all the sports out there. Learn how to bet on basketball, football, tennis and other sports then simply bet on the favorites as soon as the opening odds are up. It is usually the underdogs that get the bigger closing odds, but there can be exceptions, so chase odds movements every step of the way.
  • Follow the most popular teams – the widest odds movements and fluctuations are almost always affecting the best teams in the world. Casual punters will always prefer to bet on the biggest names and this applies to football, tennis, basketball and other sports. That’s why the variations are the widest here.
  • Open multiple sports accounts – bookmakers have different betting terms and conditions but they will all adjust their funds based on how punters wager. If you want to make the most of the closing odds strategy, open accounts with several operators, so you always cash in on the biggest odds in the market.

Efficient market theory in sports betting

Sports betting isn’t an exact science, but there is an economical theory and also tends to apply to online sports betting. The efficient market theory states that in the long run, the actual prices will reflect the real worth of an underlying asset. When it comes to sports, the theory claims that the closing odds are the ones that better reflect the difference between the teams involved.

This theory is only partially true because what actually happens is that the closing odds reflect the market sentiment. Basically, they are the reflection of how people feel about a certain team or athlete and how much they chose them to prevail. While you can’t affect the odds movements, you can take advantage of these changes to bet on the highest odds available.

Opening odds vs. Closing odds

The name says it all, so when you try to distinguish between opening and closing odds, time is everything. Opening odds are published in advance, usually 10 days or more before the event begins, to give punters enough time to place a bet. Closing odds are the ones available minutes before kickoff and they are the reflection of all the bets placed by punters, as well as objective sports changes.

When a trend emerges, it usually continues in the first minutes of the game, so you can further exploit the discrepancies by betting live. If you sign up for an account at the best cash out betting sites you will be able to take the profits without waiting for the final whistle. This will encourage you to push the limit when it comes to closing odds, especially if you have the option of partial cash out in-play.

Pros and Cons of betting on closing odds

PROS

  • You maximize profits by betting on top odds
  • Get a better sense of how punters are betting
  • Have more time to gather information about the game

CONS

  • You can miss out on better opportunities if the odds drop

Frequently Asked Questions about closing odds:

If you choose the right match and markets you can bet on closing odds that are superior to opening odds. The market changes often and the opening and closing odds are almost never identical.

Research a lot, read reviews about the teams you plan on betting on and previews for upcoming matches. Bet accordingly and use sports betting money management to render the role played by luck virtually irrelevant.

You can use free online tools to track opening and closing odds to maximize the return on investment. They are useful, but not a substitute for the hands-on research, so take the time to compare the odds.

The biggest risk is to miss out on opening odds that are actually higher than closing odds because you misinterpret the information available. When this happens, it is better to simply avoid the bet altogether.

Be patient and use closing odds to your advantage

Closing odds are not a silver against the house edge, but they can give you an advantage by maximizing your profits. The rule of thumb states that the closing odds on favorites will be lower than the opening odds since players bet heavily on them.

There are, of course, exceptions to the rule, so research the market and track the odds every step of the way to make an educated decision and win as much as possible.